Fore Warnings to Come

At the end of May 1979 I assumed the duties of acting Non-Commissioned Officer in Charge of Battalion S-2 (Intelligence) due to the shortage of senior Non-Commissioned officers for the U.S. Army, and upon the take over of the U.S. Embassy in Iran in November 1979 I was totally emerged in the study of Iran and Iraq for routes for possible rescue efforts of the hostages held in Tehran.

On the first Tuesday of March 1980 I was asked to perform a threat assessment of Islamic Fundamentalist in the middle east considering they had no air force or naval sources to speak of. I was assisted in the assessment by the S-3 Operations Clerk and the S-2 Intelligence Specialist. The assessment request was given at 1140 hours (11:40 AM) to be ready at 1300 hours (1 PM) for a Battalion Staff war games.

Immediate Threat (Completed October 2000)
Civilian: Hotels, Cafes, and nightclubs in countries with a Muslim populace will experience attacks on foreign (western) tourists. Attacks started in November 1976 in the Philippines and Malaysia.
U.S. Government: Embassies and Consulate buildings in countries with a Muslim populace will experience attacks. Philippines in October 1976, Iran 1979, Beirut 1983, Sudan 1994.
Military: Ground Bases and ships in foreign ports located in countries with a Muslim populace. Philippines October 1976, Turkey 1979, Beirut 1983 and the USS Cole October 2000.

Intermediate Threat (Completed September 11, 2001)
High jacking of fully fueled commercial airliners to be used in kamikaze attacks.
High-jacking will probably take place at Boston, JFK, Washington D.C. and Atlanta airports.
Targets will probably be New York Stock Exchange, World Trade Center, Pentagon, Congress and the White House.

Long Term Threat - Considering the long term threats are still looming I consider them classified. However, I can say of some of the things the United States must do and prepare for example Airport Security, Port Security, and Border Security must be increased and re-examined on a regular basis.

I was awaken early on Sept 11 by a phone call from an acquaintance telling me of the attack and to turn on the boob tube. I told her than if a second airplane were to hit that this was an real attack not an accident, then only a few minutes later the second plane hit. Then I found myself screaming at the tube as I saw firemen rush inside, having worked around aviation my whole military career I believed the buildings would collapse after 45 minutes, which eventually happened.

This threat assessment was studied from March 1980 to October 1980 at which time I was discharged from active military service. No military action ever discussed could halt the attacks, only changes in corporate and governmental operations could be effective. After the September 11, 2001 attack President Bush stated that the US had poor intelligence.

Starting around August 2002, President Bush started war talk against Iraq, stating connections with terrorists and possessing weapons of mass destruction. In December 2002 I sent letters to Senators Ron Wyden and Gordon Smith of Oregon (my home state) stating the facts I had access to while working in military intelligence:

Weapons of Mass Destruction - Since the end of the first Iraq War, there was a probability of 98% that Iraq had no serviceable chemical or biological weapons. 70% of their chemical weapons were used during the first Iran/Iraq war, 20% were used on Kurds and enemies of the state, leaving 5% to be determined (approximately 67) and verified by the UN weapons inspectors as being demilitarized.

Terrorist Connections - Saddam Hussein and his administration had no connections with any terrorist groups. The only connection is five fundamentalist Muslim clerics that have militant followers. (50,000)

While Senator Wyden voted against going to war with Iraq, Senator Smith replied that he would support the president right or wrong, legal or not being that they are both Republicans.

During the 2004 election, a veterans group supporting John Kerry produced a copy of an official Officer Efficiency Rating of Lt. George W. Bush. President Bush’s administration fabricated a story that it was a false document stating that it had not been typed on a IBM Selectric typewriter. I studied this document and found that it was typed on a Royal Executive model typewriter that was standard issue to the Army and Air Force services from 1969 - 1976, in which I used during my last assignment from March 1978 to November 1980.

Was intelligence available before 9/11? (yes) Was intelligence available about Iraq’s lack of weapons of mass destruction prior to going to war? (yes) Was the George W. Bush OER real? (98% probability yes)

It feels like a century since I was on active duty, and with my health issues I can not be called back to active duty or have children so like most Americans I can either sit and watch or turn off the tube.